ESP Article about every team's off season.
What went right: The Lions rebuilt their secondary. The pass defense -- which ranked 32nd in QBR -- likely cost them a playoff spot last season. Aaron Glenn's unit was 11th in pressure rate, but the secondary cycled through players and didn't have a corner it trusted as a consistently reliable option.
General manager Brad Holmes noticed. Out went 2020 No. 3 pick Jeff Okudah, Mike Hughes and Amani Oruwariye, three of the team's top four corners. In their place? Holmes signed Cameron Sutton, who was a top-10 corner in coverage last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats data. C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who tied for the league lead in interceptions last season, was added to play safety and some slot corner. Emmanuel Moseley, a solid corner for the 49ers when healthy over the past few seasons, was brought in, and Brian Branch, who fell to the second round of the draft, gives Glenn another playmaker in the secondary. So yeah, Holmes addressed this team's biggest weakness.
What went wrong: Detroit otherwise repeatedly prioritized the league's least valuable positions. Secondary aside, it didn't do much in free agency. It let franchise spark plug Jamaal Williams leave and replaced him with David Montgomery on what is likely to be a two-year deal in the $12 million range; Montgomery has failed to average 4.0 yards per carry as a pro. Alex Anzalone, who has posted solid numbers in coverage over the past two seasons, was brought back on a similarly sized pact.
That would all be fine, but what happened next seemed to beggar belief. The Lions used their two first-round picks on players at those same positions; they traded down and used the 12th pick on running back Jahmyr Gibbs before taking off-ball linebacker Jack Campbell at No. 18. I covered how running backs have been low-ceiling, low-reward picks in my pre-draft piece on Bijan Robinson, while Campbell was the only off-ball linebacker drafted before the third round. It's difficult to imagine the Lions couldn't have addressed the position with Drew Sanders or Trenton Simpson later while using their first-rounder on a premium position, such as edge rusher.
Their second-round picks were at positions of need, but Holmes again went for some of the lowest-value positions in football in safety (Branch) and tight end (Sam LaPorta). The Lions didn't come out of this draft with an edge rusher to play across from Aidan Hutchinson or any other front seven help beyond Campbell. They did use a third-round pick on Hendon Hooker, who could replace Jared Goff in the long term if the team sours on its starting quarterback, but he is already 25 and is recovering from a torn ACL.
Even the additions in the secondary aren't quite as compelling as they might seem at first glance. Gardner-Johnson signed a one-year deal and didn't appear to have a significant multiyear market around the league after his breakout season in Philadelphia. Moseley, also on a one-year deal, has missed 22 games over the past three seasons with injuries. The Lions are unquestionably better in the secondary, but it wouldn't be a surprise if they were back in the cornerback market in 2024.
Remember: I'm basing this on what each team had to work with heading into the offseason. There were few teams in a more desirable spot than the Lions, who had cap flexibility and came into the draft with two first- and two second-round picks. They even added another second-rounder when they moved down in a deal with the Cardinals. Somehow, though, they came out of the offseason without adding a single player at a premium position.
Are the Lions likely to be better in 2023? Absolutely. They should be the favorites in the NFC North. In the long term, though, this was their best chance to add difference-makers over the next four to six years at positions that are hard to find in the later rounds of the draft or on the cheap in free agency. You might argue that Holmes didn't need to add a wide receiver or an offensive tackle -- and maybe Detroit is thrilled with Goff -- but we know that needs pop up at those positions quicker than you think. (Holmes' former employers in Los Angeles can attest to that.) Detroit does need long-term help on the edge and at cornerback, positions that went unaddressed here. I think the Lions hurt their chances of winning a title at the expense of building a better 22-man starting lineup for 2023.
What's left to do: Add an edge rusher. Rookie James Houston had eight sacks in just seven games last season, but the sixth-round pick doesn't have underlying numbers supporting that sort of production and I wouldn't want to count on him being that player in 2023. Romeo Okwara has played just nine games over two seasons while battling a torn Achilles. With Yannick Ngakoue and Frank Clark still available, I'd love to see the Lions bring in another pass-rusher.
