Fielder for Kinsler trade

[stonecold2136]

I really hope we dont.

I am split on Scherzer. If no one offers anything good for trade, then it might be good to extend him. But not for Grienke money

 

[spockmaster]

If we can't trade him this offseason, Id rather just wait and see what he does next season. He's not worth Greinke money now, and if he takes a step back next offseason, he probably won't be asking for it anymore. If he still does, we make the qualifying offer and let someone else overpay while getting a draft pick back. Signing him to an extension this offseason is just too big a risk, imo.

 

[pr0tege]

Man it's just amazing to see some of the trade idea's bouncing around the office now after today's move. An interesting one I seen a few minutes ago was interesting for sure.

Tigers receive:
3B/LF - Chase Headley (10M*)

Padres receive:
CF - Austin Jackson (5.3M*)
SP - Rick Porcello (7.7M*)

*Projected arbitration salary.

Not sure how much I would like this move with Headley being a FA after 2014 unless an extension was in place before the trade.

 

[Monster]

Man it's just amazing to see some of the trade idea's bouncing around the office now after today's move. An interesting one I seen a few minutes ago was interesting for sure.

Tigers receive:
3B/LF - Chase Headley (10M*)

Padres receive:
CF - Austin Jackson (5.3M*)
SP - Rick Porcello (7.7M*)

*Projected arbitration salary.

Not sure how much I would like this move with Headley being a FA after 2014 unless an extension was in place before the trade.

Ummm...no. Hell no. One fluke year and coming off knee surgery. No. Pass.

 

[pr0tege]

Ummm...no. Hell no. One fluke year and coming off knee surgery. No. Pass.

Yeah honestly I thought it would be a serious overpay on the Tiger's part. Just interesting seeing all the rumblings coming in. It's like the 1st major trade of the offseason just get's everyone going lol.

 

[Sbee]

Kinsler is owed $62 Mil over the next 4 years and DET is offsetting the deal by $30 Mil. So we get Kinsler at a rate of $23 Mil per year over the next 4 years. Yup, I don't see the value.

The value ia not paying fielder 20 plus million when he's 38

 

[Rebbiv]

Last 3 Years Away

Kinsler #19 of 31 2B with .690 OPS

Kinsler #20 of 31 2B with .304 wOBA

Kinsler #20 of 31 2B with 90 wRC+


Last 3 years Away

Fielder #8 of 31 1B with .845 OPS

Fielder #7 of 31 1B with .362 wOBA

Fielder #7 of 31 1B with 129 wRC+


From an offensive standpoint, we are 39 Runs Created weaker on offensive. If we adjust for positional defense, that leaves us at about 25 Runs Created, or roughly 5 wins a year we lose because of the deal.

Now, the "savings" is supposed to allow us to get who? We still need HR power (Kinsler is average HR power away from Arlington), especially with Fielder gone. And, we really do not have a left handed power threat. NONE!

And I don't give a rat's ass the the $30 Mil is deferred. It is still there. It is like buying a $500,000 with balloon payments not happening until year 3. It looks good for the first few years, but then "look out".


Omar Infante is a better all around 2B than Ian Kinsler. This would be like paying Infante $23 Mil a year and then saying but hey, it saves us money in the long run? Huh? You know, my wife said she saved us $200 by spending $1,000 on "stuff". Yeah, OK.

1. Fielder should not have ever been signed by DET. We overpaid dearly. And if anyone reads my posts over the years, I have said time and time again that he is barely a 30-HR hitter.

2. 2013 was a down year for Fielder. We just now sold him at a low in value. Why? Especially when everyone wants to resign Scherzer at is optimum value. It makes no sense. You sell high and buy low. Texas did this. Even if we got Elvis, we would also been getting a TEX player that is overpaid based on his value.

 

[Rebbiv]

The value ia not paying fielder 20 plus million when he's 38

But whether it was this deal or another deal, there was nothing that said we couldn't get better value.

Many of you make it seem like this was the only opportunity for the rest of his contract to trade Fielder. A team like the Yankees would have traded us someone (Gardner?) for Fielder, especially if we are kicking in $30 Mil.

I am not against trading Fielder. I am actually all for it. I just am against getting an aging, overrated, overpaid and injury risk player in Kinsler.

Kinsler was on a short list of mine that I didn't ever want to see in a Tiger's uniform. The Tigers absolutely have issues scoring runs on the road and Kinsler does not help here. In fact, he is going to be a liability.

 

[tomdalton22]

Thank God....the fatass is gone!

 

[stonecold2136]

Ummm...no. Hell no. One fluke year and coming off knee surgery. No. Pass.

Headley isn't even worth one of those guys. Porcello had an excellent 2nd half last year. He stopped throwing the slider and started throwing the curveball a lot more especially to Left handed hitters. Porcello has a good curveball.

 

[byco42]

I wanted to see Prince make a go of it here. Thinking that reaching a nadir in his career and life would somehow cause a rebound. An off-season conditioning program, renewed focus, something to prove, all that. Accounting for the predictable declining skills of big first baseman, Prince has several seasons of productivity left, especially in that Ballpark he's playing in now. Kinsler's home stats will suffer in Comerica and he's underwhelming on the road offensively. All this talk about extra "speed" on the base paths? 14 SB's and 11 CS's? That's run-negative. We should have given Prince a season to redeem himself, IMO, or received better value than Kinsler.

 

[tomdalton22]

I wanted to see Prince make a go of it here. Thinking that reaching a nadir in his career and life would somehow cause a rebound. An off-season conditioning program, renewed focus, something to prove, all that. Accounting for the predictable declining skills of big first baseman, Prince has several seasons of productivity left, especially in that Ballpark he's playing in now. Kinsler's home stats will suffer in Comerica and he's underwhelming on the road offensively. All this talk about extra "speed" on the base paths? 14 SB's and 11 CS's? That's run-negative. We should have given Prince a season to redeem himself, IMO, or received better value than Kinsler.

The Tigers weren't going to get anything of great value for Fielder due to his bloated contract. What they got is an average 2B and some flexibility.

 

[Rebbiv]

Headley isn't even worth one of those guys. Porcello had an excellent 2nd half last year. He stopped throwing the slider and started throwing the curveball a lot more especially to Left handed hitters. Porcello has a good curveball.

Headley plays in the worst offensive park in MLB and his stats suffer for it.

Career Home .243 BAVG .334 OBP .373 SLG .707 OPS

Career Away .293 BAVG .366 OBP .448 SLG .818 OPS

Last 3 Years Home .258 BAVG .354 OBP .406 SLG .760 OPS

Last 3 Years Away .290 BAVG .377 OBP .471 SLG .848 OPS


A 29-year old switch hitter who can play 3B and LF. His last 3 years away is in line with Fielder's last 3 years away, but unlike Fielder, Headley can play some defense and he costs less than half as much.

I would trade Scherzer for Headley. Porcello would not get the job done. Period.

 

[Rebbiv]

The Tigers weren't going to get anything of great value for Fielder due to his bloated contract. What they got is an average 2B and some flexibility.

How do you know we weren't going to get anything of great value? We sold low on Fielder. We both didn't like his contract, I get that. But we really got screwed on this. You might not see it now. But give it a year or two.

 

[tomdalton22]

How do you know we weren't going to get anything of great value? We sold low on Fielder. We both didn't like his contract, I get that. But we really got screwed on this. You might not see it now. But give it a year or two.

DD and the Tigers brass know a shit ton more than you and I. If they thought they could have dumped Fielder on a team and got more than Kinsler they would have done it. Some people may see Fielder's HR numbers spike in TX but that will be because of the ballpark. Getting rid of that albetross of a contract, getting a similar value player in return while adding a great deal of current and future flexibility is a win for the Tigers.

 

[byco42]

The Tigers weren't going to get anything of great value for Fielder due to his bloated contract. What they got is an average 2B and some flexibility.

Clairvoyance is such a rare attribute. I wish I had it. I could retire. And you have the proposition reversed. The issue is not what the Tigers' received in return for Fielder; it's what the Rangers received in return for Kinsler -- Fielder and 30MM. The Rangers received the superior value in this transaction.

 

[tomdalton22]

Clairvoyance is such a rare attribute. I wish I had it. I could retire. And you have the proposition reversed. The issue is not what the Tigers' received in return for Fielder; it's what the Rangers received in return for Kinsler -- Fielder and 30MM. The Rangers received the superior value in this transaction.

both teams got what they needed. The Tigers had too many 3 DH/1B and the Rangers had 3 middle infielders. The Rangers needed a LH power bat and the Tigers needed a 2B. The Tigers had way too much money tied up in long term contracts. I think both teams got what they needed.

Go do some reading (KC posted a bunch of articles)....I haven't found a single article that doesn't rave about what the Tigers did (getting rid of Fielder's contract and adding flexibility)

 

[johnny2x2x]

Take it for what it's worth but Denny McClain was on the radio this morning saying that there was some very bad blood between Prince and a few other Tigers in the locker room, there was some ugly things that happened and we traded away a guy this year because of one of the incidents. Said the whole story will come out now that Prince is gone. Basically saying Prince was hated by several of his teammates.

Again, it's Denny McClain, but he and Leyland are pretty good friends.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

I think everybody is trying too hard to anoint a "winner" and "loser" in this deal, but in all honesty, it makes a lot of sense for both sides.

The Tigers get a very good 2B for the next 5yrs, they save $76mil and thus have more flexibility to extend Cabrera/Max/etc., they aren't on the hook for 7yrs of Fielder's deal which will likely look uglier and uglier towards the end, they can rotate Miggy through 1B/DH which should keep him healthier, they now have the flexibility to sign a 3B/LF/DH/1B if they want to add a bat, they can break in their best prospect in Castellanos instead of having to go with Perez (probably a plus, but who knows with prospects?), they may have gotten rid of a guy with an attitude problem and/or other baggage... sure, we're losing a legitimate 30HR/100RBI guy from our lineup now, but it may well prevent us from losing our Cy Young winner next year and/or our MVP two years from now.

For the Rangers, they get a lefty power bat who should put up great numbers in their home park. They move the most expensive, and arguably lowest upside member of the trio of middle infielders they had. They are adding Fielder without really another losing starter. With the Tigers eating $30mil of the deal, it's like they are getting Fielder for under $20mil/yr, which is a lot more palatable.

I think it's a win-win deal.

 

[tomdalton22]

This was a good analysis of the trade from one of KC's posts in the Tiger Team notes thread.

After spending the better part of the past few seasons climbing baseball’s Mount Everest only to run out of steam just shy of the peak, the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers have decided enough is enough. Those 90-95 win seasons and deep playoff runs that don’t quite bear fruit will no longer be tolerated. The time to go for it is now, and no move quite emphasizes that mindset than the Prince Fielder-Ian Kinsler swap.



Detroit’s reasoning behind the deal is fairly obvious. They’ve finally figured out that baseball isn’t all strikeouts, home runs, and long base-clearing doubles; you actually have to catch the ball as well. In fact, this change in mindset may have started back in July, when GM Dave Dombrowski sent big bat/poor glove outfielder Avisail Garcia to the White Sox as part of a 3-team trade that netted defensive wunderkind Jose Iglesias. With the rangy, durable Kinsler now in tow the Tigers finally have the type of double play combo that can provide legitimate support to a pitching staff.

The Fielder swap also allows Miguel Cabrera to hop back across the infield, where he is a more natural fit. After playing passable defense at 3rd base in 2012, Cabrera was a locomotive gone off the rails a season ago. If we look at defensive runs saved Cabrera ranked 80th out of the 80 AL players who spent time at the position thanks to the fact that he was estimated to have cost the Tigers 18 runs. By the time we reached the postseason he was an absolute statue in the field and although that can be blamed on his injuries, Cabrera is not likely to improve defensively with age.

Detroit can now go out and plug-in almost any 3rd baseman on the open market and they would vastly improve a defense which cost the Tigers an estimated 57 runs a year ago. In fact, if the Tigers so choose, they could move their top prospect, Nick Castellanos, back to 3rd base, a position he played for 200 or so games in the minors.

Castellanos projects as a solid middle of the order bat with great gap-to-gap power so this trade may actually increase Detroit’s run scoring capabilities as well. If he can post something around a .275/.330/.450 slash, Detroit should be just fine. Kinsler will be an upgrade offensively over Omar Infante, and the new 2nd baseman should feel right at home in the spacious confines of Comerica Park, where his contact heavy approach should go over perfectly. It’s hard to see this trade as anything but a huge win for the Tigers, who as an added bonus will save a boatload of money down the road in the process.

That doesn’t necessarily lead to the conclusion that Jon Daniels and Texas got taken to school. In fact, Texas may come out of this deal smelling like roses as well. According to Fangraphs, the Rangers accumulated 0.4 wins above replacement out of their 1st basemen a year ago and to make matters worse, they basically broke even at the DH position. Fielder, even in the midst of a career worst season, was still good for 25 homers, 100+ RBI, and walks galore. At the very least the big man should provide the Rangers with an extra 60-70 run scoring opportunities next season thanks to his patience at the plate.

The real risk with Fielder comes down the road. There was a notable drop-off in the rotund 1st baseman’s performance during the 2013 season and his age (30), body shape, and family history (his father Cecil declined badly after he turned 33 and he was out of baseball by the time he was 35) tend to lead to the idea that his best days have already come and gone. Fielder’s contract also runs for another 7 seasons at $24 million a pop, and even though the Tigers are sending a lump sum of $30 million in cash to Texas, that kind of payroll hit probably won’t look very good by 2018 at the latest.

But in the short-term, this move could pay real dividends for Jon Daniels and the Rangers. Prince is markedly better than any other 1st base/DH type on the market and that’s the position that Texas likely needed the most help at a year ago.

Another big plus for the Rangers is that it finally gives them some positional flexibility in the infield. Ron Washington can play Mitch Moreland at 1st with Prince at the DH spot. Even if Fielder plays 1st base, he shouldn’t hurt the Rangers defense too much because they have Adrian Beltre and two rangy shortstops (Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar) manning the rest of the positions. That’s pretty good company to keep.

Texas can now spend the rest of their offseason making pursuing a catcher and a lead-off hitter with the knowledge that the rest of their roster is set. Brian McCann would fit in awfully well with the rest of this roster, as would Shin-Soo Choo. Either way, general manager Jon Daniels has options.

———————–

In all honesty, this is one of those trades that makes so much damn sense on paper, but rarely gets made in real life. Texas and Detroit each had their own positional problems, whether they be too many 1st basemen or too many shortstops, and each team was able to come up with a productive solution. Don’t be surprised if we see each of these two AL powerhouses clashing next October.